A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
