Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
