The Way This Unusual Campaign Broke the Typical Coach of the Year Mould.
Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.
In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest upset.
However this year's competition is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and recent underperformers ascending together. In an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.
Below is how the projected ballot could shake out.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record
Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.
Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.
Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.
In a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal season!
Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record
Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.
Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.
The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.
Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.
The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.
3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3
Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.
Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.
Still